An evidence-based examination of economic reforms, national outcomes and everyday life since May 29, 2023.
Since May 2023 the naira's dollar value has changed by —, the petrol price by — and gross reserves by —. Headline inflation went from — to —, and the poverty rate from — to —.
The headline measures, from May 2023 (or the nearest period) to the latest figure. Green means the change is good for Nigerians, red that it is bad, whatever its sign.
| Indicator | Then | Now | Change | Unit | Note |
|---|
Changes are percentages for money amounts and percentage points (pts) for rates. The naira row shows the change in the naira's dollar value, not in the exchange rate.
Each major reform is put to the same ten questions. Every answer is marked Realised (measured and already happened), Projected (promised or expected, not yet measurable), Partly delivered, or Not yet sourced (the evidence is not in this edition).
| Reform | Benefits already realised | Benefits still projected | Who mainly absorbed the cost |
|---|
| Question | Evidence | Status |
|---|
Sources are named in each answer; full links are in the report and the data store. FAAC figures are NEITI's as reported by Leadership; relief measures are from ICIR's October 2023 record.
Where a price rose faster than the minimum wage, the item takes more hours of minimum-wage work to buy than in May 2023. This assumes the worker actually receives the full minimum wage, which many informal and state workers do not.
Marked * = one or both prices are author-supplied from market observation and word of mouth, not NBS. Hover or tap a bar for hours of work then and now (173.33 working hours a month). National averages; Lagos and the South are usually higher.
Mass Atrocities Tracker, compiled from reports. Nigeria publishes no official, regular security dataset, so the government's claims of improvement cannot be checked.
NOIPolls monthly polls; sample sizes and question wording were not published with these figures. Afrobarometer: 93% said the country was going in the wrong direction in mid-2024, up from 89% in 2022.
Inflation, May 2023 against the latest month. Ghana and Egypt started from higher inflation and had IMF-backed programmes; Kenya had no comparable shock. Nigeria's latest figure is on a rebased series.
| Country | Inflation May 2023 | Latest | IMF growth 2026 |
|---|
Growth projections from the IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026 (Egypt: April 2026). Inflation in %.
Public claims by the government and the opposition, tested against the same data with the same four verdicts.
| Claim | Claimant | Verdict | Evidence |
|---|